BKG

Space Weather

Situation Report, October 09, 2024

Overall Situation
5 /5
Extreme
ⓘ Explanation of the WESIS Space Weather Scales at the end of the document
Classifications
Electron Content start: October 07, 07:30 UTC
duration: 9.0 hours
I4
Severe
Geomagnetic Disturbance start: October 07, 18:00 UTC
duration: 15.0 hours
G3
Strong
Disturbance Storm start: October 07, 17:00 UTC
duration: 47.0 hours
D3
Strong
Solar Radio Flux start: October 09, 01:32 UTC
duration: 2.5 hours
F5
Extreme
Proton Flux start: October 09, 05:05 UTC
duration: 43.8 hours
S3
Strong
X-Ray Flux start: October 09, 15:45 UTC
duration: 14 minutes
R3
Strong
Warnings

Energy Supply

Space Operations

Communication

Navigation

Flight Crew

SDO Overview
The NASA SDO satellite provides image data in various wavelengths (primarily in the extreme ultraviolet range) and measures magnetic fields. A satellite image associated with this event is shown here.
Operational Comments
October 07, 2024: TEC values are once again high, exceeding the I3 threshold (I4), as they have been in recent days. F10.7 values are also consistently elevated. There is slight geomagnetic activity today, but it does not exceed G1 (minor geomagnetic storm).
October 08, 2024: A strong geomagnetic storm is currently underway—KP 7.33 (03:00–06:00 UTC)—and the DST D3 threshold has also been reached. However, the Earth’s magnetic field is expected to calm down over the course of the morning.
October 08, 2024: Yesterday (October 7, 2024) at 19:13 UTC, another X2.1 flare occurred in Region 3842.
October 09, 2024: Another X-class flare (X1.8) – this time from Region 3848 (Beta-Gamma-Delta).
October 09, 2024: According to spaceweatherlive, there was also a major radio burst at the same time, which we were unable to detect with the CLT due to the timing: 04:45 UTC - 10 cm radio burst. Start time: 10/09/2024 01:36 UTC. Peak time: 10/09/2024 02:03 UTC. Duration: 174 minutes. Peak flux: 2700 sfu
October 09, 2024: Early this morning, a significant radio burst was detected at 1.4 GHz (measured at 70,000 sfu in Hawaii, so it had no significant impact here).
October 09, 2024: 16:06 UTC X1.43 flare; unfortunately, the SDO image from this time is completely black.
October 09, 2024: Starting at 15:44 UTC, a 18,000 SFU radio burst at 1.4 GHz (San Vito)

Examples of Effects

  • Navigation systems: Significantly greater positioning errors in single-frequency satellite navigation receivers. Satellite navigation systems may occasionally be affected. Satellite navigation receivers may malfunction. Increased positioning errors in navigation systems are possible, especially in regions near the poles. Low-frequency navigation signals in maritime and aviation were disrupted for about an hour.
  • Energy supply: Corrective actions may be necessary when controlling high-voltage grids; certain protection systems may trigger false alarms.
  • Space operations: Electrostatic charging of satellite surfaces is possible; low satellite orbits are affected by increased air drag; corrective measures for satellite orientation are necessary. Single-event upsets in satellites (e.g., memory errors) and increased noise in imaging sensors; solar panels may operate slightly less efficiently.
  • Communication: Occasional problems with LF and HF radio communication may occur. Communication breakdowns are likely. Deteriorated HF radio communication in polar regions Widespread HF radio blackouts on the sunlit side of the Earth; loss of contact with ships and aircraft.
  • Flight crew: There is a risk of cosmic radiation for passengers and crew members on polar routes.
Planetary K-index
Each vertical line represents the Kp index for the corresponding 3-hour interval. The x-axis represents time in the format Day.Month HH:MM UTC. The y-axis shows the index value. Warning thresholds from the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) are plotted as needed.
Disturbace Storm Index Dst
Similar to the Kp index, the Dst characterizes geomagnetic activity. However, here the equatorial ring current is calculated using four geomagnetic observatories distributed at regular intervals. The x-axis represents time in the format Day.Month HH:MM UTC. The y-axis displays the DST index value in [nT]. Warning thresholds defined internally by GOW are plotted as needed.
GOES magnetometer measurements
The geostationary satellites of the U.S. National Weather Service are equipped with vector magnetometers. The x-axis represents time in the format Day.Month HH:MM UTC. The y-axis shows the northward component of the measured magnetic field, Hp, in [nT].
Measurement of X-Rays
The U.S. National Weather Service's geostationary satellites measure the X-ray flux. The x-axis represents time in the format Day.Month HH:MM UTC. The y-axis shows X-ray radiation in [W/m²] in the wavelength range from 0.1 to 0.8 nm.
Total electron content
A measure of electron density in the ionosphere; determined from Galileo measurements. The x-axis represents time in decimal years. The y-axis shows the TEC in [TECU] = 10^16 electrons. Warning thresholds defined internally by GOW are plotted as needed.
WESIS Space Weather Scales

The warning scale is based on the scale used by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, USA) and comprises five levels, ranging from 1 (mild) to 5 (extreme). Statistically, extreme events occur one to four times per solar cycle. A cycle lasts 11 to 13 years.

D | Disturbance Storm Time (Dst) Index

The Dst Index is a primary gauge for geomagnetic storm severity, derived from a worldwide network of near-equatorial magnetometer stations. It calculates the globally averaged disturbance in the horizontal (H) component of Earth's magnetic field. As solar storms inject energetic ions into the magnetospheric ring current, they create a magnetic field that directly opposes Earth’s field, pushing Dst values deeply negative.

D1 < -50 nT
D2 < -75 nT
D3 < -100 nT
D4 < -200 nT
D5 < -400 nT
E | Electron Flux

The NOAA SWPC tracks the outer radiation belt using geostationary GOES satellites to issue Electron Flux Alerts. Warnings are activated when the >=2 MeV electron flux exceeds 1,000 pfu for three consecutive 5-minute intervals. This indicator warns operators of deep-dielectric charging, where accumulated internal electrical charges in spacecraft components can cause sudden arcing, leading to phantom commands or permanent satellite damage.

E1 1.000 electrons/ second
E2 10.000 e/s
E3 100.000 e/s
E4 1.000.000 e/s
E5 10.000.000 e/s
F | Solar Radio Flux

A parameter to which we actively contribute using the Solar Flux Telescope (CLT). Similar to the case of X-rays (see R-scale), the amounts of energy emitted during solar flares are reflected in the measurements of solar energy flux as so-called radio bursts. If the measurements increase abruptly, they are converted to the warning scale according to the following scheme: Increase in solar flux greater than:

F1 500 sfu
F2 1.000 sfu
F3 10.000 sfu
F4 20.000 sfu
F5 40.000 sfu
G | Geomagnetic Storms

The NOAA SWPC uses the G-Scale to categorize the severity of Geomagnetic Storms caused by solar wind variations. The scale directly maps to the planetary Kp-index, ranging from G1 (Kp = 5) up to G5 (Kp = 9). It serves as a vital operational warning system for power grid operators regarding transformer damage, pipeline engineers tracking corrosive currents, and satellite flight dynamics teams monitoring increased atmospheric drag and surface charging.

G1 Kp5
G2 Kp6
G3 Kp7
G4 Kp8
G5 Kp9
I | Electron Content

Total Electron Content (TEC) is the integrated electron density along a signal path through Earth's ionosphere, measured in TEC Units (TECU). Rapid increases in TEC, driven by solar EUV/X-ray flares and geomagnetic storms, directly modify the refractive index of the upper atmosphere. This causes signal phase delays and range errors for Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS/GPS), high-frequency (HF) radio degradation, and satellite-to-ground communication disruptions, making it a critical metric for precision aviation and maritime navigation. We determine the total electron content using our own GNSS measurements.

I1 40 TECU
I2 50 TECU
I3 60 TECU
I4 70 TECU
I5 85 TECU
R | X-Ray Flux

The NOAA SWPC uses the R-Scale to categorize Radio Blackouts caused by sudden solar flare X-ray emissions. The primary metric is the peak X-ray flux measured in by GOES satellites, mapping directly to flare classes from R1 (M1 class) up to R5 (X20 class). It warns maritime, aviation, and military operators of sudden ionospheric absorptions that block HF radio communication and cause positioning errors in low-frequency navigation systems.

R1 0.00001 W/m² (M1 Flare)
R2 0.00005 W/m² (M5 Flare)
R3 0.0001 W/m² (X1 Flare)
R4 0.001 W/m² (X10 Flare)
R5 0.002 W/m² (X20 Flare)
S | Proton Flux

The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) uses the S-Scale to categorize Solar Radiation Storms. The primary metric is the elevated proton flux (>=10 MeV), measured in Particle Flux Units (pfu) by GOES satellites. Stoms range from S1 (>=10 pfu) to S5 (>=100,000 pfu). It warns industries of polar HF radio communication failures, spacecraft orientation errors, and heightened radiation hazards.

S1 10 protons/second
S2 100 p/s
S3 1.000 p/s
S4 10.000 p/s
S5 100.000 p/s